51¢ Polymarket Price Explained
- Decimal
- 1.96
- American
- -104
- Fractional
- 49/51
- Implied probability
- 51.00%
- Polymarket
- 51¢
- $100 wins
- 96.08
- American
- -104
- Fractional
- 49/51
- Implied probability
- 51.00%
- Polymarket
- 51¢
- Profit
- 96.08
- Total return
- 196.08
1.961 decimal, -104 American, 51.00% implied probability
A Polymarket share priced at 51¢ pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 51.00%. In sportsbook terms that is 1.96 decimal odds or -104 American odds. The NO side of the same market sits near 49.00%.
What a 51¢ share pays
Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 196.08, a profit of 96.08.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9.61 | 19.61 |
| 25 | 24.02 | 49.02 |
| 50 | 48.04 | 98.04 |
| 100 | 96.08 | 196.08 |
| 500 | 480.39 | 980.39 |
| 1,000 | 960.78 | 1,960.78 |
Break-even and long-run results
Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 51.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 51.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 50% | -2.0% |
| 51% | 0.0% |
| 55% | 7.8% |
| 60% | 17.6% |
| 65% | 27.5% |
A share at 51¢ is a near coin flip at 51.00%. Around 50¢ the spread between YES and NO is what matters: buying both sides at 51¢ and 51¢ costs $1.02 for a $1.00 payout, which is the market's margin.
Converting 51¢ by hand
Treat the price as a probability: 51¢ is 51.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 1.961, which bookmakers would display as 1.96. American odds follow from the decimal price: a favourite, so −100 divided by (1.961 − 1) gives -104. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 49/51.
YES, NO and the spread
On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 51¢ the NO side should be near 49.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.
Fees and comparison with sportsbooks
Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 1.942 decimal, at 5% 1.913. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 1.942 | -106 | 51.50% |
| 5% | 1.913 | -110 | 52.28% |
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does a 51¢ price mean on Polymarket?
A share costs 51¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 51.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 1.96 decimal or -104 American odds.
How do I convert 51¢ to decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 51¢ gives 1.961, shown as 1.96.
What is the NO price when YES is 51¢?
On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 49.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.
Is 51¢ better than the sportsbook price?
Compare after fees. At 51¢ the share is worth 1.96 decimal before fees and 1.942 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.
What do I win per 100 dollars at 51¢?
100 dollars buys 100 / 51¢ shares, which pay 196.08 in total on a win: a profit of 96.08.