-104 Odds Explained
- Decimal
- 1.96
- American
- -104
- Fractional
- 25/26
- Implied probability
- 50.98%
- Polymarket
- 51¢
- $100 wins
- 96.15
- American
- -104
- Fractional
- 25/26
- Implied probability
- 50.98%
- Polymarket
- 51¢
- Profit
- 96.15
- Total return
- 196.15
1.962 decimal, -104 American, 50.98% implied probability
-104 is an American price:
the minus sign marks a favourite, and the number is the stake needed to win 100
. Every other format describes the same chance: 1.96 decimal, 25/26 fractional, 50.98% implied probability, 51¢ on Polymarket.
What -104 pays
A 100 stake at -104 returns 196.15 in total: your 100 back plus 96.15 profit. To win exactly 100 you would stake 104.00. The table covers the stakes people actually use.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9.62 | 19.62 |
| 25 | 24.04 | 49.04 |
| 50 | 48.08 | 98.08 |
| 100 | 96.15 | 196.15 |
| 500 | 480.77 | 980.77 |
| 1,000 | 961.54 | 1,961.54 |
Break-even and long-run results
The implied probability of -104 is 50.98%, and that number is also the break-even win rate: win more often than 50.98% of the time at this price and you profit in the long run, win less often and you lose. The table shows the return on stake at a few win rates, including the break-even rate itself.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 50% | -1.9% |
| 51% | 0.0% |
| 55% | 7.9% |
| 60% | 17.7% |
| 65% | 27.5% |
An implied probability of 50.98% makes -104 a near-even price. This is the natural home of handicap and over/under markets, where the bookmaker adjusts the line rather than the price and both sides are quoted a shade under 2.00 decimal.
The vig at -104
If both sides of a two-way market were priced at -104, the implied probabilities would add up to 1.96% above 100%. That excess is the overround, or vig; as a share of stakes it is a 1.92% margin for the bookmaker. Removing it leaves fair odds of 2.00 decimal ( +100) on each side. Use the devig calculator to do the same for any market.
-104 on a betting exchange
Exchanges charge commission on net winnings, so the price you see is not the price you get. At 2% commission -104 is worth 1.942 decimal (-106 American); at 5% it drops to 1.913 (-109). Those are the bookmaker prices you would need to beat.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 1.942 | -106 | 51.49% |
| 5% | 1.913 | -109 | 52.26% |
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does -104 mean in betting?
-104 is an American price. Positive numbers show the profit on a 100 stake; negative numbers show the stake needed to win 100. At -104 the implied probability is 50.98% and a 100 stake returns 196.15.
What is -104 in decimal odds?
-104 converts to 1.962 in decimal odds (usually shown as 1.96). Decimal odds are the total return per unit staked, so multiply your stake by 1.962 to get the return.
What is -104 as a fraction?
-104 is 25/26 in fractional odds, the traditional bookmaker notation where the top number is profit and the bottom number is stake.
How much do I win on a 100 bet at -104?
A 100 stake at -104 wins 96.15 in profit and returns 196.15 including the stake. To win exactly 100 you would stake 104.00.
What win rate do I need at -104?
The break-even win rate equals the implied probability, 50.98%. Winning more often than that at this price is profitable over the long run; winning less often loses money.