61¢ Polymarket Price Explained
- Decimal
- 1.64
- American
- -156
- Fractional
- 39/61
- Implied probability
- 61.00%
- Polymarket
- 61¢
- $100 wins
- 63.93
- American
- -156
- Fractional
- 39/61
- Implied probability
- 61.00%
- Polymarket
- 61¢
- Profit
- 63.93
- Total return
- 163.93
1.639 decimal, -156 American, 61.00% implied probability
Buying at 61¢ means risking 61¢ to win the rest of a dollar. That is a payout ratio of 1.64 (decimal odds) or -156 in American notation, and it implies an implied probability of 61.00% probability before fees.
What a 61¢ share pays
Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 163.93, a profit of 63.93.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 6.39 | 16.39 |
| 25 | 15.98 | 40.98 |
| 50 | 31.97 | 81.97 |
| 100 | 63.93 | 163.93 |
| 500 | 319.67 | 819.67 |
| 1,000 | 639.34 | 1,639.34 |
Break-even and long-run results
Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 61.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 61.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 50% | -18.0% |
| 55% | -9.8% |
| 60% | -1.6% |
| 61% | 0.0% |
| 65% | 6.6% |
61¢ is a favourite's price on a prediction market, implying 61.00%. Compare it with a sportsbook's price on the same event: if the book offers better than -156 on the same side, or better than the complement on the other side, one of the two venues is mispriced.
Converting 61¢ by hand
Treat the price as a probability: 61¢ is 61.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 1.639, which bookmakers would display as 1.64. American odds follow from the decimal price: a favourite, so −100 divided by (1.639 − 1) gives -156. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 39/61.
YES, NO and the spread
On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 61¢ the NO side should be near 39.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.
Fees and comparison with sportsbooks
Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 1.627 decimal, at 5% 1.607. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 1.627 | -160 | 61.48% |
| 5% | 1.607 | -165 | 62.21% |
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does a 61¢ price mean on Polymarket?
A share costs 61¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 61.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 1.64 decimal or -156 American odds.
How do I convert 61¢ to decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 61¢ gives 1.639, shown as 1.64.
What is the NO price when YES is 61¢?
On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 39.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.
Is 61¢ better than the sportsbook price?
Compare after fees. At 61¢ the share is worth 1.64 decimal before fees and 1.627 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.
What do I win per 100 dollars at 61¢?
100 dollars buys 100 / 61¢ shares, which pay 163.93 in total on a win: a profit of 63.93.