-281 Odds Explained
- Decimal
- 1.36
- American
- -281
- Fractional
- 21/59
- Implied probability
- 73.75%
- Polymarket
- 74¢
- $100 wins
- 35.59
- The fraction shown is the closest simple fraction to the odds rounded to 3 decimals, not an exact match.
- American
- -281
- Fractional
- 21/59
- Implied probability
- 73.75%
- Polymarket
- 74¢
- Profit
- 35.59
- Total return
- 135.59
1.356 decimal, -281 American, 73.75% implied probability
The price -281 converts to 1.36 decimal odds and 21/59 fractional odds. Read as a probability it says the bookmaker prices this outcome at 73.75%, which is the share of the time you would need to win just to break even. A prediction market would quote the same chance as 74¢.
What -281 pays
A 100 stake at -281 returns 135.59 in total: your 100 back plus 35.59 profit. To win exactly 100 you would stake 281.00. The table covers the stakes people actually use.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 3.56 | 13.56 |
| 25 | 8.90 | 33.90 |
| 50 | 17.79 | 67.79 |
| 100 | 35.59 | 135.59 |
| 500 | 177.94 | 677.94 |
| 1,000 | 355.87 | 1,355.87 |
Break-even and long-run results
The implied probability of -281 is 73.75%, and that number is also the break-even win rate: win more often than 73.75% of the time at this price and you profit in the long run, win less often and you lose. The table shows the return on stake at a few win rates, including the break-even rate itself.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 50% | -32.2% |
| 55% | -25.4% |
| 60% | -18.6% |
| 65% | -11.9% |
| 74% | 0.3% |
With an implied probability of 73.75%, -281 is a moderate favourite. Prices in this band are where the bookmaker's margin is easiest to see: the opposite side of the market is usually priced a little longer than the fair line, and the two implied probabilities add up to more than 100%.
The vig at -281
If both sides of a two-way market were priced at -281, the implied probabilities would add up to 47.51% above 100%. That excess is the overround, or vig; as a share of stakes it is a 32.21% margin for the bookmaker. Removing it leaves fair odds of 2.00 decimal ( +100) on each side. Use the devig calculator to do the same for any market.
-281 on a betting exchange
Exchanges charge commission on net winnings, so the price you see is not the price you get. At 2% commission -281 is worth 1.349 decimal (-287 American); at 5% it drops to 1.338 (-296). Those are the bookmaker prices you would need to beat.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 1.349 | -287 | 74.14% |
| 5% | 1.338 | -296 | 74.73% |
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does -281 mean in betting?
-281 is an American price. Positive numbers show the profit on a 100 stake; negative numbers show the stake needed to win 100. At -281 the implied probability is 73.75% and a 100 stake returns 135.59.
What is -281 in decimal odds?
-281 converts to 1.356 in decimal odds (usually shown as 1.36). Decimal odds are the total return per unit staked, so multiply your stake by 1.356 to get the return.
What is -281 as a fraction?
-281 is 21/59 in fractional odds, the traditional bookmaker notation where the top number is profit and the bottom number is stake.
How much do I win on a 100 bet at -281?
A 100 stake at -281 wins 35.59 in profit and returns 135.59 including the stake. To win exactly 100 you would stake 281.00.
What win rate do I need at -281?
The break-even win rate equals the implied probability, 73.75%. Winning more often than that at this price is profitable over the long run; winning less often loses money.